Hana Securities said on the 3rd (local time) that, after the United States carried out airstrikes in Venezuela and arrested President Nicolás Maduro, "a short-term shock to the global financial markets is inevitable, but the impact will be limited."
Researcher Lee Jae-man at Hana Securities said in a report the same day that a short-term rally would likely continue in ▲ international oil prices ▲ gold ▲ the dollar.
On international oil prices, Lee said, "Geopolitical risk triggers a risk premium immediately," adding, "Based on historical cases, this event is expected to exert 5%–10% upward pressure."
However, the rise in oil prices is expected to be temporary. Lee predicted, "With OPEC+ efforts to stabilize supply and weakening global demand, oil prices will stabilize in the midterm in a $55–$65 range."
In particular, he cited Venezuela's limited crude production capacity. Venezuela holds the world's largest crude reserves, but long-term sanctions and aging infrastructure have reduced output to about one-third of the past peak of 3 million barrels per day (bpd). As of the end of 2025, crude exports are also expected to be about 900,000–2 million barrels, meaning a small share in the global market.
Preference for gold, a safe-haven asset, is expected to continue for the time being. Lee said, "Right after the incident, gold rose 1%–2%, raising the possibility of a short-term break above $4,500 per ounce," adding, "There were precedents of a roughly 10%–20% surge in gold during the 9/11 attacks and the Iraq War." He added, "This time as well, similar strengthening of safe-haven preference is likely to keep upward pressure on gold."
The U.S. dollar is also expected to show short-term strength as geopolitical uncertainty increases demand for safe currency. However, he said, "In the midterm, dollar strength could weaken as rising fiscal burdens from military action coincide with diplomatic backlash from Latin America, China, and Russia."
He also said the stock market could face a short-term correction but could use it as a catalyst for a rebound. Lee said, "As geopolitical uncertainty rises and investor sentiment weakens, equities could correct by around 5%–10% in the short term," but added, "Unless it leads to a slowdown in the global real economy, it is more likely to remain an event-driven adjustment rather than a structural decline."
He noted that, historically, after geopolitical shocks, the S&P 500 has often risen an average of 9.5% within a year, and advised that the market's direction will depend on how quickly political uncertainty is resolved and how smoothly the transfer of power proceeds.