Among 105 newly listed KOSDAQ corporations over the past three years (2022–2024), only six (5.7%) actually met their forecast performance in the year of listing. Cases that met only some indicators were 15.2%, while corporations that generally fell short of estimates reached 79.1%.
The Financial Supervisory Service stated accordingly on the 30th through materials on "inspection of IPO pricing based on forecast performance and future response."
According to the Financial Supervisory Service, 105 KOSDAQ listings over the past three years (2022–2024) set their IPO prices based on forecast performance, of which 93 (88.6%) were technology or growth special listings. By industry, health and medical accounted for 40 (38.1%), and IT accounted for 38 (36.2%), taking a large share.
When estimating future performance, most used net income as the benchmark, accounting for 96.2% (101). The most common estimation point reflected the present value of results two years after listing.
In addition, among corporations that set IPO prices using forecast performance, 31.4% had a lower closing price on the listing day than the IPO price, amounting to about one-third of the total.
Meanwhile, only six out of 105 corporations (5.7%) fully met their forecast performance in the year of listing. Sixteen (15.2%) met only some indicators, and 83 (79.1%) fell short of all estimates for revenue, operating profit, and net income.
By year, after disclosure was strengthened in Oct. 2023, the revenue deviation rate of 2024 listings improved slightly, but the deviation rates for operating profit and net income remained high. Classifying the causes that issuers cited for deviation rates of 10% or more, "poor business performance" accounted for the largest share.
A comparison of deviation rates by lead manager showed that even the same lead manager displayed wide swings in deviation depending on the year and case, indicating an overall lack of stability. In some cases, exceptionally high deviation rates appeared due to excessive performance forecasts in a specific year.
In response, the Financial Supervisory Service plans to prepare a checklist at the securities registration statement stage to pre-check major causes of forecast failure, support reasonable performance forecasts by issuers and lead managers, and reference it in the review process.
It will also improve the form used for periodic reports to include outlooks for future deviation rates, guiding issuers to work on narrowing those gaps.
Additionally, for IPO corporations, it will regularly disclose press releases comparing deviation rates by lead manager so that investors can directly compare and judge post-listing performance by manager, and to induce lead managers to fulfill stricter, investor-focused due diligence obligations.