Certified public accountants expected the boom to continue in the first quarter of next year (January–March). They analyzed that a semiconductor boom will persist as investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers expands.
According to the "fourth-quarter business survey index as seen by certified public accountants (CPA BSI)" released on the 25th by The Korean Institute of Certified Public Accountants' Accounting Policy Research Institute, the fourth-quarter economic conditions BSI assessed by accountants came in at 101, and the outlook BSI for the first quarter of next year was tallied at 108.
A BSI above 100 indicates an economic improvement, while below 100 indicates a deterioration.
The fourth-quarter conditions BSI for this year rose slightly from the third quarter (93). Backed by favorable semiconductor conditions, exports showed signs of recovery, and private consumption also recovered modestly due to the government's economic stimulus policies. However, it was analyzed that consumer sentiment has not fully recovered yet due to high prices and the accumulated burden of high interest rates.
The first-quarter outlook BSI (108) for next year also showed a clear uptrend. Despite a global slowdown and an uncertain trade environment, it was analyzed that growing confidence that a semiconductor boom will continue, as global AI and data center investment expands, had an impact. Expectations for lower interest rates and the effects of the government's measures to boost domestic demand were also reflected.
Accountants cited the following as major detailed factors that will affect Korea's economy over the next year: ▲ global economic trends (41%) ▲ government policy changes (18%) ▲ currency policy direction and changes in funding conditions (9%) ▲ raw material prices and inflation (8%) ▲ household and corporations liability levels (5%), among others.
In the industry-by-industry outlook BSI, shipbuilding (143), electronics (138), pharmaceutical and bio (121), and automobiles (117) were found. Most industries were expected to see an improvement and better conditions compared with the fourth quarter.