KB Securities said on the 19th that "the long-term boom cycle in memory is only just beginning."
KB Securities cited Micron's recent guidance. Micron posted its highest-ever quarterly revenue in the first quarter (September–November), and for the second quarter (December–February) set revenue guidance at $18.3 billion–$19.1 billion, about 30% above the market consensus of $14.4 billion.
Kim Dong-Won, head of research at KB Securities, said, "Micron is likely to post record results in the second quarter," adding, "This will have a positive impact on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in the first quarter of next year."
Management comments on a prolonged memory supply shortage also drew attention. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said, "The current memory market is in a severe supply shortage and we can meet only 50% of key customer demand," noting, "Demand for AI memory such as servers and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) continues to surge." Mehrotra particularly said the DRAM supply shortage is highly likely to persist through 2027.
Analysts say the HBM market has already entered a supply-constrained phase. CEO Sanjay said, "Including HBM4, which is scheduled for mass production in the second quarter of 2026, next year's HBM supply has already been fully contracted." KB Securities projected the HBM market to expand from $35 billion in 2025 to $100 billion in 2028, tripling in three years and logging average annual growth of 40%.
The pricing environment also remains favorable. According to market research firm TrendForce, recent HBM3E prices are under increasing upward pressure due to a surge in DRAM prices and rising order volumes from graphics processing unit (GPU) and application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) companies. As a result, Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are estimated to have raised the prices in recently signed contracts for next year's HBM3E by about 20% from previous levels. HBM4, which goes into full mass production starting in the second quarter of next year, is expected to command a 28%–58% price premium over HBM3E.
Kim projected that in 2026 the HBM revenue mix will shift to HBM4 at 55% and HBM3E at 45%, and that starting in the third quarter of next year HBM4 will quickly absorb HBM3E demand. Kim particularly expected Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to supply more than 90% of global HBM4 demand, naming the two companies top picks in the semiconductor sector.