Eugene Investment & Securities said on the 19th that if SpaceX goes public in the second half of next year, it could be valued at $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. That is about 1,480 trillion to 2,219 trillion won in Hanwha terms.
SpaceX was recently valued at $800 billion (about 1,180 trillion won) in private share trading. That surpasses OpenAI, valued at $500 billion, and is the highest among unlisted corporations worldwide.
SpaceX is likely to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) in the second half of next year. Elon Musk also replied "Accurate" to a post saying SpaceX would list, raising expectations for a listing.
Jeong Ui-hoon of Eugene Investment & Securities said, "If it lists in the second half of next year, SpaceX could be valued at about $1 trillion to as much as $1.5 trillion, and it plans to raise about $30 billion through this IPO."
SpaceX's business lines are broadly divided into rocket launch services, Starlink, a low-Earth-orbit satellite communication service, and government projects. In launches, the core reusable launcher, "Falcon 9," recorded 132 launches last year and 165 this year. The fee per launch is estimated at about $70 million; applying that implies about $11.5 billion in launch revenue.
Jeong said, "However, excluding 122 launches that carried its own Starlink satellites from the 165 launches, revenue is around $3 billion," adding, "If we assume roughly 190 Falcon 9 launches next year, revenue excluding Starlink launches is estimated at about $3.5 billion."
The Starlink business line is classified into communication service revenue and equipment sales revenue. The number of Starlink subscribers worldwide recently topped 8 million, with subscribers nearly doubling in one year. Jeong said, "As service areas have recently expanded to Asian countries, the number of users has increased rapidly. Next year's Starlink revenue is expected to be about $11.4 billion."
Considering other project income, SpaceX's total revenue next year appears likely to be about $17 billion to $18 billion. The market capitalization of Rocket Lab, a U.S. small rocket launch company, is currently about $31.3 billion, and this year's estimated revenue is about $600 million.
Jeong said, "Applying this to SpaceX puts its valuation at about $1 trillion," adding, "In the global space industry, considering SpaceX's unrivaled technology and revenue growth rate, a valuation above Rocket Lab's is also possible."