KB Securities said on the 18th that Samsung Electronics is expected to post 100 trillion won in operating profit next year on higher prices for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and conventional DRAM. It kept a Buy rating and a target price of 160,000 won. Samsung Electronics closed the previous session at 107,900 won.
Kim Dong-Won, head of research at KB Securities, said, "We raised server DRAM prices by 60% in the fourth quarter, the largest price hike on record," and noted, "With a surge in HBM3E orders from application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) firms, we estimate HBM3E prices were also recently raised by 20% to 30%, which should improve earnings."
Kim expects Samsung Electronics' fourth-quarter operating profit at 19 trillion won, up 192% from a year earlier. In particular, Kim sees the semiconductor (DS) division's operating profit at 15.1 trillion won, up 422% year over year and 116% quarter over quarter.
The 2026 full-year operating profit forecast was presented at 100 trillion won. Kim said, "With the DRAM shortage continuing, the price uptrend will likely persist in the first quarter of next year," adding, "From the first half of next year, increased shipments of HBM4, which is expected to carry a 40% to 50% price premium, will further boost momentum."
HBM shipments are also expected to jump sharply. Kim mentioned the possibility of entering Nvidia's supply chain along with increased orders from ASIC firms such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, and projected Samsung Electronics' HBM shipments in 2026 at 11.2 billion Gb, up 203% from the previous year. Of that, HBM4 is expected to account for about half.
Accordingly, 2026 HBM revenue is estimated at 26 trillion won, triple from the prior year, and Samsung Electronics' HBM market share is expected to expand from 16% this year to 35% next year.
Kim said, "Even though Samsung Electronics is the biggest beneficiary of higher HBM and conventional DRAM prices, it is trading at a valuation about 43% below the peer average," adding, "Given its absolute undervaluation, a re-rating phase is imminent."