Shinhan Investment & Securities on the 16th released the results of a market outlook survey conducted of 200 of its private bankers (PBs) ahead of 2026. Participants included 90 at deputy department head level or above, 36 at Vice Administrator level, 52 at assistant manager and Director level, and 22 at staff and junior manager level.
The survey found that Shinhan Investment & Securities PBs expect next year's Korean stock market returns to outperform the U.S. market. The highest share, 35.5%, said the Korean market would rise more than the U.S. market, followed by 31% who said the U.S. market would outpace Korea, and 28.5% who said the two markets would post similar returns.
They saw artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors ultimately leading the Korean market. A total of 62.5% of respondents chose AI and semiconductors as the key leading sectors, followed by biotech at 24% and autos at 3.5%.
Regarding domestic corporations' earnings, 58% said only exporters would be solid. Next, 33.5% anticipated broad-based earnings strength in the market. By contrast, just 6.5% expected an overall earnings slowdown.
They also projected that AI and semiconductors would continue to lead in global markets. A total of 80.5% of PBs said semiconductors and AI are promising sectors in both Korea and the United States. In addition, respondents cited secondary batteries and defense in Korea and health care in the United States as promising.
On monetary policy, sentiment leaned toward rate cuts. The largest share, 52%, said only the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut rates, while 41% said both the Bank of Korea and the Fed would cut. Just 4.5% expected rate hikes.
For exchange rates, the outlook favored a continued strong-dollar trend. A total of 41% expected dollar strength to persist, while 36.5% said the rate would fluctuate around current levels. The share expecting a shift to a stronger won came to 12%.
As for asset allocation strategy, the most-cited approach was to balance exposure evenly between Korea and the United States. The largest share, 43%, recommended allocating 50% each to Korea and the United States, while 33% advised raising Korea's share to 70% or more, and 20% recommended setting the U.S. share at 70% or more.