Toss Securities' research center said on the 16th that it published a report titled "QnA 2026" with its market outlook for next year.
The research center defined 2026 as "a year in which volatility coexists within an upward trend," and emphasized that investors should see volatility not as something to avoid but as an opportunity to manage and use.
A distinguishing feature of the report is that it developed investment insights with more than 2,000 investors. From the planning stage, it collected questions from investors through a preliminary survey, and Toss Securities said it selected 26 key questions, including "Is artificial intelligence (AI) a bubble?" and "Will U.S. stocks rise or fall?," and presented its market outlook in a Q&A format.
According to the report, U.S. stocks are expected to continue a bullish trend next year. Recession fears are limited, and an overall soft landing phase is expected. With energy prices stabilizing, the risk of a sharp spike in inflation has eased, and even if some consumption slows, increased investment by corporations is expected to cushion the impact.
It also said that if expectations for AI drove the market in 2023 and improvements in corporate earnings (EPS) did so this year, rate cuts and liquidity injections will be added next year. The assumption is that a favorable environment could form where liquidity combines with solid results.
As for major investment themes, it still pointed to the AI industry. Because this is a bull market led by AI, it assessed that the likelihood of market leadership changing in the short term is low. However, short-term volatility is inevitable, so it advised using correction phases as chances to buy core tech stocks at reasonable prices.
The domestic stock market is also expected to continue a gradual upward trend. Although this year's sharp gains could lead to short-term fatigue, semiconductors were identified as likely to maintain a structural growth trend. In addition, improvements in the profit strength of major corporations such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are expected to serve as growth drivers.
Lee Young-gon, head of Toss Securities' research center, said, "This report is meaningful in that it is a communication-oriented paper born from investors' real concerns," adding, "We will continue research that faithfully conveys market trends while staying in step with investors."