Korea Investment & Securities said that on the 11th, the last futures and options expiration date in Korea this year, with a U.S. benchmark rate cut and a regular change to the KOSPI 200 index scheduled, it is expected to pass quietly compared with concerns.
Shin Chae-rim, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, "It is a futures and options expiration date with many issues but one that will pass quietly compared with concerns," and noted, "Caution about the events has been priced in, and backwardation (a phenomenon in which futures prices fall below spot prices) is appearing."
However, December is the second-lowest period of trading value in a year, and roll-over (month switch) from the December 2025 contract to the March 2026 contract is occurring, so the market impact on the expiration date itself will be limited, the researcher explained.
Earlier that day, in the early morning Korea time, there was a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the United States. At the FOMC, a 25 bp rate cut was decided in line with market expectations.
Shin said, "Looking at cases over the past five years when the FOMC and Korea's futures and options expiration date overlapped, and at expiration dates in months when a benchmark rate cut was decided, both the KOSPI 200 spot and futures closed higher on the expiration date itself, except during the 2020 pandemic period," adding, "The impact on expanding volatility in the spot and futures markets will be limited."
At market close, a regular change to the KOSPI 200 index is scheduled. Shin also said, "There are concerns about heightened volatility, but regular index rebalancing is an event that recurs every year, so the market shock at the index level is limited."
However, the researcher explained that a supply-demand shock could occur at the level of individual stocks subject to the regular change. Shin analyzed, "Seven stocks are set to be replaced, and attention is needed to the possibility of supply-demand shocks, especially in names like Asia Holdings, which have low trading value and could see strong index-tracking buy demand upon inclusion."