Since December, domestic retail investors have shown a clear buying trend in the KOSDAQ market. Over the past six trading days, individuals bought more than 240 billion won solely in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that bet on a rise in the KOSDAQ index. The sudden reversal in investor sentiment appears to stem from expectations of U.S. benchmark rate cuts and the imminent announcement of the government's KOSDAQ revitalization policy.
According to Koscom Check on the 9th, KOSDAQ index-tracking ETFs such as "KODEX KOSDAQ150 Leverage" and "KODEX KOSDAQ150" rose into the top five for individual net purchases for this month (1–8). The total net purchase amount reached 240 billion won. This stands in stark contrast to last month, when the top individual net purchases centered on KOSPI and U.S. stocks such as "KODEX 200" and "TIGER U.S. S&P 500."
By individual stocks as well, individuals posted 66.2 billion won in net purchases on the KOSDAQ this month, a sharp reversal from 480.1 billion won in net selling last month. Even excluding Alteogen (a KOSPI transfer listing catalyst, 338.9 billion won), they concentrated on buying biotech names such as Aimed Bio (95.9 billion won), G2GBIO (82 billion won), Peptron (70.7 billion won), and ABL Bio (61 billion won), as well as the AI model-lightweighting company Nota AI (83 billion won).
Buoyed by this buying, on the 4th the KOSDAQ's market capitalization surpassed 500 trillion won intraday. The KOSDAQ index, which was in the 880s at the end of last month, climbed to 927.79 the previous day, rising more than 5% in a short period.
In the market, expectations that the government will unveil a large-scale KOSDAQ revitalization package starting late this month are seen as fueling the buying. In fact, the government has already mandated that 25% of securities firms' integrated investment account (IMA) funds be invested in venture and risk capital, and beginning on the 10th the 150 trillion won Public Growth Fund, which will invest in advanced industries such as AI, semiconductors, biotech, and robotics, will be fully launched. There is a high likelihood that these funds will flow into the KOSDAQ.
On top of this, the increased probability—87.2% as of the 10th (local time), according to CME FedWatch—that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark rate is also acting as a positive for the KOSDAQ.
Ha In-hwan, a KB Securities analyst, said, "With the timing of the Federal Reserve's rate cut aligning with the December government policy announcement, the outlook for the KOSPI market is good, but the KOSDAQ market has been neglected, so it will draw more attention."
There are also expectations for corporations participating in CES, the world's largest IT and consumer electronics show held in Las Vegas at the start of the year, and the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. Ha noted, "Since new technologies are typically unveiled at CES and the like, there is a pattern that leads to share price gains in related stocks."
However, with no detailed policy plan yet released, some say the recent KOSDAQ surge may be excessive optimism. Earlier, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) was scheduled to announce a "plan to strengthen the competitiveness of the KOSDAQ market" on the 4th but canceled it without separate notice.
Park Ki-hoon, a Korea Investment & Securities analyst, said, "The Financial Services Commission (FSC) has not finalized the detailed plan yet, so what we have is only expectations," adding, "Depending on the specifics of the policy, a process of selecting beneficiaries will take place, which will decide whether the index moves again or whether there is selling on disappointment."