Amid the tariff shock from the United States, overheated investment in artificial intelligence (AI), and a fiscal crisis among the G7, an outlook emerged that revenue could be made next year in alternative assets such as infrastructure, commercial real estate, and private credit.
Macquarie Asset Management released its global economic and investment outlook report, "Outlook 2026," on Dec. 9. The report analyzed that four megatrends, including digitalization and decarbonization, will support real-asset revenue. It projected that infrastructure, where fundraising and deal activity have been strong, has reached an attractive entry point versus listed shares at about 14 times EV/EBITDA multiples.
The infrastructure sector is on the verge of entering a "supercycle" due to a surge in AI power demand. The United States plans to add 64 GW of new generation capacity in 2025 (with solar accounting for more than 50%), and China increased capacity by 290 GW in the first half, signaling a 3.7% expansion in global power demand. Data center vacancy in the United States is at a record low of 1.6%, demand for doubling fiber-optic networks is rapidly rising, and annual returns are expected to reach 10% by 2026.
Commercial real estate has entered a phase of rising rents due to supply shortages after a valuation reset. Living, logistics, and data centers are key, with improved development margins and easing rates expected to increase medium- to long-term risk-adjusted returns. The report emphasized, "Investors who supply in a supply-constrained environment will capture strong returns."
Private credit is projected to grow to $2.8 trillion in assets under management (AUM) by 2028, driven by the revitalization of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) by private equity fund (PEF) managers and asset-backed finance (ABF). However, after a prolonged period of a stable credit environment, volatility has increased, and some borrowers could face difficulties. Even so, it projected that investment appeal will continue in the long term as a revenue-diversifying destination.