Hana Securities said on the 8th that the injunction granted in Germany to ban sales of Keytruda SC affects only the German market and has a limited impact on overall revenue for Alteogen. It maintained a "buy" investment opinion and a target price of 640,000 won. Alteogen's current share price is 456,500 won.
Earlier, a German court accepted an injunction filed by Alteogen's competitor Halozyme and ordered a halt to sales in Germany of Keytruda SC, an anticancer drug from Merck (MSD) that uses Alteogen's formulation-change technology.
Hana Securities stressed that the granting of the injunction in Germany is entirely separate from any determination on the validity of patent rights and that the order cannot affect sales in the United States.
Kim Seon-a, an analyst at Hana Securities, said, "Countries outside Europe also decide independently whether to grant an injunction," and noted, "Also, because European marketing approval was obtained in November and revenue is just beginning to occur, the impact on the total sales we expected is very small."
Hana Securities analyzed that because this injunction initially affects only Germany, the sales affected by this order amount to only the 2% range of Keytruda's total sales.
Kim said, "It does not seem likely, but even if an injunction were issued across all of Europe, it would appear to affect about 7.7% of the combined estimated sales for 2025–2026."
She also projected that if a preliminary ruling is confirmed in early 2026, even that impact would decrease significantly.
She said the possibility of the injunction being lifted could be known around February–March next year. Kim explained, "Merck will naturally appeal the injunction, and about six months later, when the German patent court provides a preliminary opinion, we should be able to assess the possibility of the injunction being lifted."
The expected date to check the preliminary opinion on the invalidation trial filing date, which can be confirmed by the Korean Intellectual Property Office, is around February–March 2026. The six-month period is not strictly observed, so there is a possibility it will be extended further.
On the likelihood of success, Kim predicted, "Because the claims of the European patent right are very broad, like the patent under invalidation trial in the United States, Merck will win (the injunction will be lifted)."
However, she said there is a possibility that the same situation as in Germany could occur in other European countries or in countries outside the United States and Europe.
Kim analyzed, "We will likely be able to check the result of the first post-grant review (PGR) in the United States in June 2026, and if we also confirm the German patent court's preliminary opinion around February–March 2026, anxiety should ease even if similar disputes arise in other countries."
She added that the fastest way to calm such anxiety would be to sign a new partnership agreement (license-out) even under these circumstances. Kim said, "I expect we can confirm about one deal within the year and close out the year."