Kiwoom Securities said on the 8th that Pearl Abyss faces valuation pressure due to uncertainty over progress in developing the new title "DokeV" and its release timeline. It lowered its investment opinion to Marketperform (market return) from Outperform (above market return), but raised the target price to 39,000 won from 34,000 won. Pearl Abyss's previous trading day closing price was 38,650 won.
Kiwoom Securities is factoring into its estimates initial quarterly performance for Pearl Abyss's game "Crimson Desert" at 3.75 million package units sold in the first quarter next year and cumulative sales of 7.5 million units over the following four years. It also assumes the release of the new title "DokeV" in the third quarter of 2027, reflecting initial quarterly package sales of 4 million units and cumulative sales of 10 million units over the following four years in its estimates.
However, it said there is uncertainty about the release timing of DokeV, which could pose risks to estimates linked to it.
Kim Jin-gu, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities, said, "DokeV has had a considerable gap since the last in-game footage was released, and the development process has not been clearly updated," adding, "Taking into account the prolonged development and release delays of the previous title Crimson Desert and other references, there may be risks in assuming DokeV's release timing and reflecting related estimates."
Accordingly, it said that if progress in development and the release timeline for DokeV are not confirmed during next year, it may be excluded from the 2027 forecast estimates.
Kim said, "If such a result occurs, there could be a break in performance based on the 2027 forecast, which could lead to valuation issues," and analyzed, "We emphasize that it is difficult to consider a level above the current target multiple assigned to Pearl Abyss."
As for the existing game "Black Desert," the third quarter showed notable improvement, but it said the sustainability of that trend needs to be confirmed.
Kim said, "In particular, considering in combination that competitors' new titles in the MMORPG genre have been released recently, increasing the intensity of competition at home and abroad, it will not be easy for Black Desert Online's revenue to grow next year."
Kiwoom Securities added that it is reflecting a 16% decline in expected 2026 revenue based on the Black Desert intellectual property (IP).