The exchange rate in 2026 is expected to be formed between 1,410 won and 1,540 won, and ultimately the strong-dollar trend is expected to persist around an average of 1,450 won.
Researcher Lee Jay-hyun at NH Futures said this about next year's won-to-dollar exchange rate trend at the 2026 annual outlook seminar held on the 3rd.
At the seminar held at the Seoul headquarters of the Korea Exchange (KRX) in Yeouido, experts offered views on how next year's exchange rate will move as the recent won-dollar rate climbed to the 1,470-won level, the highest in seven months. They also laid out safe-haven investment strategies in response to U.S. economic risks.
◇"The upward trend in next year's exchange rate will continue… downward pressure will be limited"
NH Futures projected that the won's weakness will continue next year, leaving little downward pressure on the won-dollar exchange rate.
Researcher Lee Jay-hyun at NH Futures said, "There is an outlook that the exchange rate could fall on KOSPI strength, but when asked whether foreigners 'bought a lot' this year, they were net sellers on a cumulative basis," adding, "It is hard for domestic KOSPI investment funds to exceed Korea's overseas investment funds."
As trading on the domestic stock market increases, if foreigners buy that much more won, the won appreciates. This can lower the won-dollar exchange rate, but the meaning is that the scale of foreign buying was not large, so the rate did not fall as much as expected.
The researcher also cited the limited dollar selling by export corporations as a reason the won-dollar rate has a low chance of declining. "Shipbuilders typically bring in a lot of dollars, but as the exchange rate has been rising recently, they do not sell dollars immediately," he said.
Experts explained that growth and economic stimulus are important for a stronger won. Although the KOSPI recently topped 4,000 points, the growth was limited to certain stocks.
Researcher Kwon A-min at NH Investment & Securities said, "Machinery orders, a leading indicator of capital spending, are at a bottom," analyzing that "only stocks that are good at exports are rising, so the positive factors do not flow into Korea broadly." Kwon added, "The growth gap is essentially a source of depreciation pressure on the won, so stimulus is needed."
The dollar index is expected to show a "lower in the first half, higher in the second half" pattern next year. According to NH Investment & Securities, there are three factors for dollar weakness in the first half: ▲policy funds following the end of the U.S. government shutdown ▲the possibility of a change in the Federal Reserve chair ▲the possibility that U.S. President Donald Trump could lose tariff lawsuits.
In contrast, it assessed that in the second half, the dollar could strengthen again as the U.S. economy recovers on the back of policy rate cuts.
◇Gold investing still valid next year… prepare for U.S. economic risks
On the day, researcher Hwang Byung-jin at NH Investment & Securities proposed investing in "gold" to prepare for U.S. economic risks.
Hwang said, "Gold is a representative safe-haven asset and at the same time the only inflation hedge asset." He explained that attempts by the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Central Bank, to cut policy rates could increase inflation risks due to tariff effects.
Global gold demand accumulated through the third quarter was 3,639 tons (t), up 10% from a year earlier. In particular, investors accounted for 43% of this year's gold consumption, the highest share. Hwang said, "On expectations that the Fed's accommodative monetary policy stance will be maintained next year, buying centered on gold bars will continue."
Hwang said, "Even next year, within an 'everything rally' cycle where both safe and risk assets rise, we recommend a balanced strategy with gold, silver and copper," while presenting next year's copper price at $9,500–$12,000 per ton and aluminum at $2,750–$3,250 per ton.