Samjong KPMG on the 4th published its report, "2026 outlook for Korea's economy and industries," and released the results of a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic environment and next year's trends across 23 major industries in Korea.
The outlook for Korea's major industries in 2026 rated semiconductors and cosmetics as "very positive," seven industries including smartphones, shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, and aviation as "positive," eight industries including displays, energy, and construction as "neutral," and six industries including automobiles, steel, and shipping as "negative."
The report emphasized that in this transitional phase where technological innovation, geopolitical risk, and policy changes overlap, the speed of strategic responses by industry will be the watershed for future growth.
The five main economic issues for 2026 were cited as: ▲ the Trump risk ▲ entrenched low growth and widening polarization ▲ expansionary fiscal policy ▲ the possibility of easing in monetary policy ▲ financial market volatility.
In particular, amid debate over an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble, a strong won-dollar exchange rate, and heightened financial market volatility, scenario-based portfolio management, currency hedging, and diversification strategies were identified as core risk management elements.
In the 2026 global semiconductor market, growth in the IC (Integrated Circuit) segment is expected to drive the overall market. Demand for high-performance memory such as HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is taking root as key infrastructure in the AI era, and domestic corporations are also expected to see higher sales.
Samjong KPMG analyzed, "As AI traffic continues to increase, securing high-performance semiconductors and advancing product portfolios will be the factors that determine corporations' growth."
K-beauty is expected to maintain steady growth as export structures diversify, centered on non-China markets such as the United States, Japan, and Europe. Amid the rise of indie brands and market expansion, nurturing promising brands, strengthening brand portfolios, and targeting emerging markets in the Middle East and South America were presented as core strategies for domestic cosmetics corporations.
The smartphone industry is expected to see the competitive landscape reshaped through enhanced AI features and form factor innovation such as foldables. Securing high-performance APs (application processors) and improving productivity are emerging as key tasks, and responses to expense pressures are becoming more important.
While global new ship orders are set to decline, Korea's shipbuilding industry is expected to show a moderate recovery based on its order backlog. Demand remains steady for high-value, eco-friendly vessels such as LNG and LPG carriers, and investment in next-generation fuel vessels, shifting production portfolios, and expanding defense demand in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia are cited as mid- to long-term opportunities.
In the pharmaceuticals and biotech industry, an AI-based new drug development ecosystem is being fully established, and competition in research and development (R&D) is expected to intensify. Alongside strengthening pipelines focused on obesity, metabolic diseases, and anticancer drugs, competition in the CDMO (contract development and manufacturing organization) market is likely to deepen, leading to advice that production capacity should be expanded, centered on high-value areas such as cell and gene therapies.
In aviation, the recovery in international route demand continues, and efficiency in route and fleet operations through the reorganization of full-service carriers and low-cost carriers (LCCs) has emerged as an important task. Reorganizing businesses around high-value cargo and strategies that respond to AI- and HBM-driven changes in cargo flows were cited as the core of mid- to long-term competitiveness.
As the online video service (OTT) market reaches saturation, the restructuring of revenue models is in full swing, and the entertainment industry is strengthening its global growth momentum as major intellectual property (IP) activities resume and China's ban on Korean content eases. In banking and securities, corporations are required to expand corporate finance, pursue digital transformation, and strengthen capital amid policy changes.
In the display industry, as the gap in global market share with China widens, domestic corporations need to strengthen strategies centered on high-value products such as automotive displays. Exploring new business opportunities across the display value chain in response to changes in the global cooperation and competition landscape was also presented as a key task.
In energy and utilities, as power demand increases and the government's energy mix changes, the shift toward renewables is expected to accelerate, and corporations are required to reorganize their business models by energy source.
In the automobile industry, the end of electric vehicle tax credits in the United States and the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase benefits in China could somewhat slow EV growth in some major countries, but growth in the U.S. hybrid market and EV market growth centered on emerging countries are expected, requiring differentiated strategies by country.
Global steel demand is improving, but the recovery in Korea's steel industry is limited by low-price supply competition and a slowdown in construction. Shifting to high-value products and adjusting excess capacity are cited as key tasks.
In shipping, excess capacity and geopolitical risk may somewhat limit a recovery in freight rates, while in refining and chemicals, oversupply and restructuring pressures are intensifying. In finance, cards and mutual finance institutions continued to face negative conditions due to tighter regulations and asset quality burdens.
In addition, structural changes across industries are expected to unfold broadly, including expanded public SOC, changes in the game industry's structure due to the introduction of Generative AI, polarization in retail, and stronger sustainability strategies in fashion.
The Samjong KPMG Economic Research Institute said, "Korea's industries in 2026 are entering a complex transition period as global geopolitical risk, technological innovation, and policy changes intersect," and emphasized, "It is time for corporations to go beyond responding to uncertainty and reignite new growth engines."
The report is available on the Samjong KPMG website, and on the 17th a free online seminar on the theme of "2026 outlook for Korea's economy and industries" will be held.