Kolon TissueGene is rallying on expectations that the market for the osteoarthritis cell and gene therapy TG-C will expand. News that global drugmaker Eli Lilly will announce by year-end the U.S. phase 3 (TRIUMPH-4) results for an osteoarthritis therapy targeting patients with obesity is also working as a tailwind for Kolon TissueGene shares.
As of 11 a.m. on the 21st, Kolon TissueGene was trading at 65,600 won, up 12.52% (7,300 won). Following an 8.36% rise the previous day, the stock is surging for a second straight day.
Korea Investment & Securities analyzed that although Eli Lilly's U.S. phase 3 is limited to patients with obesity, if symptom-relief effects are confirmed in an untapped indication, interest in disease-modifying osteoarthritis drugs (DMOADs) will also increase.
Kolon TissueGene faces the U.S. phase 3 results for TG-C in Jul. 2026. In a recently released report, Korea Investment & Securities said, "We judge the likelihood of clinical success to be high based on TG-C's mechanism of action, consistent demonstration of clinical efficacy, efficacy in reducing the frequency of total knee arthroplasty (TKA), and safety."
Wi Hae-ju, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, added, "The key data for TG-C are the reductions in TKA frequency. There has been no knee osteoarthritis drug candidate that has demonstrated mid-to-long-term efficacy for more than 15 years, and as a gene therapy, TG-C's proprietary cell line acts as a barrier to entry, eliminating concerns about copycat drugs."
Regarding Kolon TissueGene, the analyst said, "We believe the current market capitalization has not yet reflected the probability of success for TG-C's phase 3."
The ongoing phase 3 trial in the United States is being conducted over 24 months at about 80 sites with 1,066 participants.
The analyst went on to analyze, "The U.S. knee osteoarthritis value of TG-C is 8.3 trillion won, and if the market expands to Europe, an additional 4.8 trillion won can be reflected." The analyst also projected that assuming an increase in patients, injections in both knees, and a two-year repeat cycle, the value could be raised to as much as 28 trillion won.