Alteogen, the bellwether of the KOSDAQ market, has begun procedures to transfer list on the KOSPI market. Looking at cases over the past 10 years, stock prices tended to rise ahead of a transfer listing on the KOSPI market, peak on the transfer listing day or shortly after, and then gradually trend downward.
According to the Financial Supervisory Service's Data Analysis, Retrieval and Transfer System (DART) on the 10th, Alteogen will hold an extraordinary shareholders meeting on Dec. 8 to seek shareholders' consent for a transfer listing on the KOSPI market. Alteogen made its transfer listing to the KOSPI market official in Aug.
The transfer listing process has three main steps. ① First, the company announces the convocation of a shareholders meeting for the transfer listing and holds the meeting. This takes about two weeks to one month. If the transfer listing agenda passes at the extraordinary shareholders meeting, ② the company submits a preliminary review application for stock listing to the Korea Exchange (KRX). The preliminary review usually takes around three months.
③ After that, the listing schedule on the KOSPI market is decided in consultation with related institutions. One to two weeks later, trading on the KOSPI market takes place along with the transfer listing. If all procedures proceed smoothly, Alteogen is expected to debut on the KOSPI market in the first quarter of 2026 (Jan.–Mar.).
What impact will the transfer listing have on Alteogen's stock price? We looked at past cases. Over the past 10 years (2015–2024), a total of 16 listed companies moved from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. From the notice of shareholders meeting to the transfer listing day, the stock prices of 10 issues rose. The average increase was 32.6%. Six issues fell, with an average drop of 21.4%. Simply put, investing in issues ahead of a transfer listing tended to offer a higher chance of gains.
By key timeline, from the notice convening the extraordinary shareholders meeting to the meeting itself, 10 of the 16 issues rose by an average of 10.4%. During the waiting period for the Korea Exchange's review, only seven of the 16 issues rose, showing a relative slowdown. After receiving the Korea Exchange's approval for a transfer listing and during the transfer listing day, 12 of the 16 issues gained, with an average rise of 7%.
However, comparing prices on the transfer listing day with those a month later, nine of the 16 issues declined. Widening the window to three months later, 12 issues fell. This suggests the effect of a transfer listing does not last long.
Taking Celltrion as an example, from the convening of an extraordinary shareholders meeting on Aug. 21, 2017 to approve a transfer listing to its passage on Sept. 29, the stock rose 28.5% from 86,837 won (adjusted price) to 111,593 won. The price then continued an upward curve, jumping to 230,828 won on Feb. 9, 2018, the transfer listing day.
With expectations of special inclusion in the KOSPI 200 index added, Celltrion's stock even broke through the 300,000-won level on Mar. 5, 2018. But three months after the transfer listing, on May 8, the price returned to 189,150 won. The current price remains in the 170,000-won range.
Since a transfer listing on the KOSPI market alone does not change corporations' fundamentals, the consensus is that the effect is hard to sustain. There is also the influence of passive funds that track indexes. As a company's share of total market capitalization is smaller on the KOSPI market than on the KOSDAQ market, passive fund inflows may also decrease.
In Alteogen's case, if it transfers to the KOSPI market, it is highly likely to be specially included in the KOSPI 200 index based on its current market capitalization. The average market capitalization over 15 trading days after the transfer listing needs to rank within the top 50 on the KOSPI market, and the gap with the 50th place is more than double.
However, unlike its 11% weighting by market cap in the KOSDAQ 150 index, Alteogen would account for less than 1% within the KOSPI 200 index. Even considering that passive funds tracking the KOSPI 200 are more than 10 times larger than those tracking the KOSDAQ 150, the passive flow effect may not be as big as expected.
More than the transfer listing itself, Alteogen's growth potential is likely to ultimately determine the stock's direction. The securities industry's view is positive. The average target price is 633,000 won, about 20% above the current price.
Eom Min-yong, an analyst at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, "We recommend Alteogen as a top pick in biotech, reflecting the KOSPI market transfer and recognition of sales milestones for the anticancer drug 'Keytruda Qurex,' which received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)."