The KOSPI index's break through the unprecedented 4,000 mark owed much to the semiconductor sector. So far this month, the KOSPI has risen 18%, with semiconductors accounting for 54% of the increase in market capitalization. Looking at this month's consensus for this year's net profit (average of forecasts) issued by securities firms, the semiconductor sector was revised up by 4.9 trillion won, while other sectors were revised down by 1.4 trillion won. In every sense, semiconductors are the leading stocks.
With more than two months left in 2025, the securities industry is already rolling out its outlook for next year's stock market. The focus is on whether this year's rally will continue into next year and which sectors will lead the market.
The prevailing view is that semiconductors will maintain their leadership position next year. Past cases show that one feature of a bull market is that the leading sector does not change. In particular, with a semiconductor supercycle anticipated, experts commonly say there is no need to cut exposure even if semiconductor share prices have risen sharply.
Park Seung-young, an analyst at Hanwha Investment & Securities, said, "While next year's net profit for the semiconductor sector is expected to increase by 19 trillion won, forecasts for other sectors have been revised down by 400 billion won," adding, "Cutting semiconductors to increase allocations to other sectors may not be a good choice."
However, other stocks that failed to shine this year could rebound next year and move to "match strides" with semiconductors. In particular, sectors with strong investment capacity are likely to join the ranks of next year's leaders. There is advice to focus on corporations that can invest with ample cash and translate that investment into sales growth.
Lee Jae-man, an analyst at Hana Securities, said, "The leading sector set at the start of a bull market does not change until the index's upcycle ends," but also noted, "This bull market will be led by industries with clear investment capacity and profitability."
From this perspective, technology stocks led by semiconductors remain attractive going forward. In addition, shipbuilding, machinery, secondary batteries, energy, and IT hardware are expected to support semiconductors.
In global markets, the names include Microsoft, AMD, Caterpillar, and Tesla, while domestically the list includes Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, Celltrion, LG Innotek, and Doosan Bobcat. Corporations maintaining record-high operating margins on the back of strong pricing power include SK hynix, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Hanwha Ocean, Hyundai Rotem, and Korea Aerospace Industries.
Lee emphasized, "Government policy is important, but ultimately what matters is corporate profit," adding, "Corporations whose investment and profit grow simultaneously will be the protagonists of the 2026 stock market."