As the KOSPI keeps setting a record high day after day and expectations grow for a break above "Sachonpi" (KOSPI 4000), the month's average daily transaction value hit its highest in about 4 years and 4 months.
According to the Korea Exchange (KRX) on the 26th, the KOSPI's average daily transaction value from the 1st to the 24th of this month totaled 16.653 trillion won. That is the highest since June 2021 (16.948 trillion won). Compared with last month, it surged 44% (5.099 trillion won).
Compared with a 13.9% increase in KOSDAQ's average daily transaction value over the same period, the rise in the KOSPI market stands out.
The KOSPI's average daily transaction value, which hovered in the 9 trillion won range early this year, shrank to the 7.9 trillion won range in April, then rebounded in June to exceed 15 trillion won. Although it declined again last month, trading has picked up this month as investor sentiment improves.
In particular, a substantial portion of the transaction value was concentrated in large semiconductor stocks. The average daily transaction value this month for Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Samsung Electronics preferred shares totaled 4.599 trillion won. That is 28% of the total KOSPI transaction value. Expanded demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and expectations for a recovery in the memory chip cycle are seen as driving the buying.
Along with this, as of the 24th, the combined market capitalization of Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Samsung Electronics preferred shares surpassed 1,000 trillion won for the first time ever. Lee Jun-seok, a Hanyang Securities researcher, said, "Even as the market shows a boom, transactions are concentrated in a handful of large-cap stocks."
Turnover also rose. The KOSPI's average daily turnover this month was 0.54%, up 29% from last month (0.42%). This means the change of hands among investors has become that much more active.
In the securities industry, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts and strong third-quarter earnings prospects at major domestic corporations are seen as factors that could drive additional gains in the KOSPI.
Hwang Jun-ho, a Sangsangin Investment & Securities researcher, said, "At the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the likelihood of a U.S. rate cut is high, and as the third-quarter earnings season begins, a rally centered on big tech (large technology stocks) with expectations for 'surprise earnings' will strengthen."
However, the burden from the recent sharp rise and the outcome of the South Korea–U.S. trade talks are cited as variables that could affect the market's direction going forward.
Lee Kyung-min, a Daishin Securities Co. researcher, said, "Depending on whether the won-dollar exchange rate stabilizes lower against the U.S. dollar as a result of the trade talks, foreign fund flows will be determined," adding, "As the KOSPI price-earnings ratio (PER) has climbed to as high as 11.5 times recently, risk management is necessary."