Hana Securities advised on the 13th that, as dividend uncertainty has grown due to the hacking incident, the timing to buy SK Telecom should be delayed until after November, when the value-up policy is announced. It kept the target price at 70,000 won but said it would lower the target price if dividends decrease.
SK Telecom's third-quarter operating loss on a consolidation basis is expected to be 27.4 billion won, turning to a loss. However, because the market consensus has already been cut sharply to 51.6 billion won in operating profit, the earnings impact on the share price is expected to be limited. This is because the weak third-quarter results are expected to be temporary, reflecting the 50% reduction in telecom charges in August and a penalty surcharge.
However, earnings are expected to return to a recovery trend from the fourth quarter. According to Hana Securities, SK Telecom's fourth-quarter operating profit on a consolidation basis is expected to be 478.5 billion won, up 88% from a year earlier. Some of the USIM-related expense recognized in the 2nd quarter will be reversed, and a decline in one-off expenses and a slowdown in labor cost increases are anticipated. This trend is expected to continue beyond next year.
Kim Hong-sik, a Hana Securities researcher, said, "Next year's operating profit is expected to be 1.8827 trillion won, up 39% from this year," and noted, "Investor evaluations are expected to be positive as improvements appear not just from a reduction in one-off expenses but also in service revenue and operating expense."
However, the possibility of a dividend cut this year is a hurdle for the short-term share price. The third-quarter loss and dividend uncertainty are highly likely to lead to a temporary outflow of supply and demand.
Kim said, "It is true that an increased likelihood of a dividend reduction this year makes it burdensome to buy right away," but added, "We recommend buying after the point when investor confidence builds, as the possibility of dividend normalization next year is also high."