Hanyang Securities said on the 29th that, when it asked 40 private bankers (PBs) at major branches nationwide about the stock market trend after the Chuseok holiday, 55% answered that "there is a high possibility of a rise." Responses expecting range-bound fluctuations were 35%, and those expecting a decline were 10%.
Regarding the year-end KOSPI index, 62.5% of respondents projected 3,600 or higher. Specifically, 3,600–3,800 was the most at 37.5%, followed by 3,800–4,000 at 15%, 4,000 or higher at 10%. The 3,400–3,600 range was 25%.
However, ahead of the Chuseok holiday, 47.5% answered that there was "no big difference" from before in their investment strategy. Hanyang Securities explained that this appeared to be because they considered structural growth potential and policy variables rather than short-term market direction. Meanwhile, 27.5% increased the share of safe assets including cash, while conversely 25% said they expanded the share of investment assets such as stocks.
As for promising domestic sectors after the Chuseok holiday, semiconductors received the most selections at 28.3%. They were followed by ▲ pharmaceuticals and biotech 18.6% ▲ high dividends 13.3% ▲ finance 12.4% ▲ treasury share cancellations 8%.
For market expectations, the most common responses were "value-up policy (19.2%)" and "base rate cuts (19.2%)." In addition, they expected ▲ growth of the AI and semiconductor industries and policy support 18.3% ▲ expanded inflows of foreign funds 18.3% ▲ easing of separate taxation on dividend income 14.4% ▲ expansion of treasury share cancellations 10.6%.
As market risk factors, "a correction in the U.S. stock market and an economic slowdown (34.7%)" and "tariff risk (33.3%)" recorded high response rates. In addition, they cited ▲ interest rate and exchange rate volatility 14.7% ▲ geopolitical risk 8% ▲ financial instability due to rising household debt 8% as risk factors.
A PB at Hanyang Securities said, "While optimism about the market is growing as expectations for an economic rebound and the policy stance align, a cautious sense of balance is needed in investment strategy," adding, "We are striving to provide sophisticated information and present tailored strategies so that clients can make unwavering investment decisions."