Considering the average purchase price (transaction amount ÷ trading volume) of individual investors who bet on a decline in the Korean stock market, it is estimated that the index would have to reach the 3,000 level for them to enter the profit zone.
According to the Korea Exchange on the 28th, "KODEX Inverse" closed at 3,205 won on 26th. KODEX Inverse is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that inversely tracks the KOSPI 200 index's one-day rise. Among domestic inverse ETFs (excluding leveraged products), it has the largest net worth.
Individuals have made a net purchase of 75.7 billion won of KODEX Inverse so far this month. The average purchase price is 3,373 won. This means most investors would enter the average valuation profit zone only if the KOSPI 200 index falls more than 5.2% from the current level to below the 440 level. Converted to the KOSPI index, the 3,260 level would have to be broken.
Expanding the time series back to June, when the KOSPI index began an upward trajectory, individuals made a net purchase of 238.4 billion won of KODEX Inverse at an average of 3,615 won. A simple calculation shows the KOSPI 200 index would have to drop more than 12.5% for investors to see an average valuation profit. On a KOSPI index basis, the 3,000 level is the break-even point.
Even as the KOSPI index set fresh record highs day after day, some individual investors moved to bet on a reversal to a decline. The success or failure of those bets will likely hinge on the direction of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix share prices, which have driven the index's rise.
As factors lifting semiconductor stocks, the continued rise in memory semiconductor prices—such as commodity DRAM and NAND flash—is cited. On the other hand, with the Donald Trump U.S. administration announcing pharmaceutical tariffs, there is concern that a tariff announcement on semiconductors, for which a tariff probe was launched at the same time, is also imminent.
In the market, it is expected that the KOSPI index's short-term direction will also be set during the third-quarter (July–September) earnings season after the Chuseok holiday. Kim In-sik, a researcher at IBK Securities, said, "We expect the domestic stock market to be swayed by three factors: the sell-before-holiday and recover-after-holiday pattern, confirmation of policy momentum (upside drivers), and the direction of semiconductor earnings."