Interest in the "15th five-year plan" is expected to grow in earnest in the Chinese stock market after the National Day holiday in China (Oct. 1–7), Kim Kyung-hwan, a researcher at Hana Securities, said on the 28th.
With the opening of the fourth plenary session (Fourth Plenum) of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, discussion is also expected on the five-year plan from 2026 to 2030. The final details will be released at the National People's Congress in Mar. 2026, but Greater China markets will begin to price in the main contents and direction of the five-year plan in advance, Kim said.
"Over the past 30 years, Greater China markets have had a high probability of a bull market during five-year plan transition periods," Kim said. "In this transition as well, Greater China markets are establishing the conditions for a trend bull market."
A key focus of the five-year plan is where to set the lower bound for the target growth rate. The forecast is for an average of about 4.8% to 5% over five years.
It is also important which industries will benefit. Kim predicted that future industries such as semiconductors, robots, and artificial intelligence (AI) applications, which are expected to receive central government support and regulatory easing, will gain.
In addition, ▲ consumption sectors such as healthcare, leisure, and duty-free, due to expanded government supply and structurally rising demand ▲ eco-friendly sectors such as renewable energy and nuclear power, which have a high likelihood of upward target revisions ▲ national strategic industries such as defense, shipbuilding, rare earths, and space ▲ and sectors such as steel, solar, and batteries, which will see policies to curb wasteful price competition, were assessed as industries with a high likelihood of benefiting.
"The 15th five-year plan warrants attention from the perspective of strengthening or accelerating medium- to long-term trends rather than short-term stimulus effects," Kim said. "China will begin to shift from deflation to reflation by 2026, and in this process, funds may move from fixed-rate assets or bonds to stocks."