After the government's tax reform plan was announced, the domestic stock market, which had shown a slump in transactions in 7th–8th, is quickly regaining momentum as the KOSPI repeatedly breaks record highs.
As of 14th, according to the financial investment industry, the domestic stock market's average daily transaction amount in September is 23.7997 trillion won, up 5.0% from the previous month.
In particular, on 10th, when it broke out of a long-standing box range and set a new all-time high for the first time in about four years, the transaction amount surged to 29.0590 trillion won, about 4.28 trillion won (17.3%) higher than the previous day.
Then on 11th, the average daily transaction amount reached 31.0453 trillion won, and on 12th it increased further to 31.9753 trillion won.
It is the first time since Jul. 31 that the domestic stock market's average daily transaction amount has exceeded the 30 trillion won level.
Looking only at 10th to 12th, when the KOSPI set an all-time high for the first time in 4 years and 2 months, the increase in the Korea Exchange's main board average daily transaction amount stands out. The main board's average daily transaction amount for 10th–12th was 14.1943 trillion won, 57.1% higher than the average of the previous seven trading days (Sept. 1–9).
Next Trade's average daily transaction amount during the same period also rose 51.1% to 8.5440 trillion won, and KOSDAQ's transaction amount increased 29.2% to 7.9549 trillion won.
Idle funds waiting on the sidelines are also increasing sharply. Investor deposits—money that investors leave in securities firm accounts to buy stocks or do not withdraw after selling stocks—stood at 71.0118 trillion won as of 11th, up 7.1% from the end of the previous month.
However, funds waiting for short selling are also showing a surge. The increase in short-selling dry powder means more investors are betting on a decline in stock prices.
According to the Korea Financial Investment Association, as of 12th, the balance of securities lending transactions was 105.2165 trillion won, up 9.3% from the end of the previous month, marking an all-time high.
Expectations and concerns are intersecting on the brokerage side. Lee Sang-jun, NH Investment & Securities researcher, said, "As confidence in government policy is reaffirmed and policy momentum recovers, if the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) resumes its rate-cut cycle at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the KOSPI is expected to end the year at a higher level than now."
By contrast, Cho Chang-min, Hyundai Motor Securities researcher, noted, "Since September, the KOSPI and the KOSPI200 volatility index (VKOSPI) have been observed rising together. It means we are in a phase where volatility is expanding as the index climbs."
He warned, "It is worth noting that the average return in the month following months when volatility expanded as the index rose has not been high," adding, "This is a time to consider the sustainability of the rally."
There is also an outlook that, with the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut effectively taken for granted and much of the expectation already priced in, the FOMC results could trigger "sell-on" (stock declines amid good news) due to the dissipation of catalysts.
Lee Ung-chan, iM Securities researcher, said, "It feels like we are gradually approaching the tail end of the bull market. AI and investment are still strong, so the stock market is enjoying it, but bonds and gold are not moving in the same direction," adding, "We are all looking at the same indicators, but seem to be thinking differently."