The KOSPI transaction volume has sharply dropped to the level of 8 trillion won. During the early days of the Lee Jae-myung administration in June, the average daily transaction volume exceeded 15 trillion won, but it has halved due to the shock from the tax reform plan and external uncertainties. The KOSPI is trapped in a trading range.
According to the financial investment industry on the 7th, the average daily transaction volume of the KOSPI at the Korea Exchange from the beginning of this month up to the 5th was 8.8823 trillion won, a decrease of 14.5% compared to the previous month's 10.393 trillion won. In particular, on the 4th, the transaction volume was recorded at 7.9779 trillion won, failing to reach even 8 trillion won.
The average daily transaction volume of the KOSPI based on the Korea Exchange has fallen to the level of 8 trillion won for the first time in over four months since May. Notably, during the first month of the Lee Jae-myung administration, which promised a 'KOSPI 5000,' the average daily transaction volume at the Korea Exchange in June rose to around 15.2 trillion won.
As the transaction volume decreased, the KOSPI became trapped in a trading range. After recovering the 3000 level for the first time in three and a half years on June 20, it broke through 3100 and 3200 sequentially, recording a closing price of 3254.47 on July 30, but further gains have since stalled. It has been fluctuating between the 3100 and 3200 levels for over a month.
At the end of July, the government's announcement of the tax reform plan became a negative factor. The core of the plan involves lowering the threshold for major shareholders subject to capital gains tax from 5 billion won to 1 billion won and introducing a separation tax rate of up to 35% on dividends, turning market expectations for stimulus from the new government into disappointment.
In addition, the threat of tariffs from the U.S. administration and uncertainties regarding U.S. interest rates have compounded the situation, causing the KOSPI to fall below the 3100 level on August 1 and it has not been able to recover since. Since August 1, the only day when the transaction volume exceeded 12 trillion won was last month's 26th.
In the securities industry, there are even observations that the tedious trading range is likely to continue into September. September is typically a seasonally weak month with the lowest annual revenue, and with the recent gradual rise in the U.S. stock market, the outflow of investors from the KOSPI has intensified.
Meanwhile, the public is expressing skepticism about the promise of a KOSPI of 5000. According to a survey conducted by Gallup Korea from the 2nd to the 4th with 1,002 respondents aged 18 and older nationwide, 50% answered that a KOSPI 5000 is 'unlikely,' compared to about twice as many as the 27% who said it is 'possible.'