Moon Yong-kwon, a researcher at Shinyoung Securities, identified tariffs, exchange rates, and labor negotiations as key variables that will affect Hyundai Motor and Kia in the third quarter of this year (July-September).
Researcher Moon noted in a report on the 2nd that the automobile tariff set by the Donald Trump administration is crucial. The operating profit outlook for Hyundai Motor and Kia for the third quarter has been revised upward in the past month, thanks to an agreement to reduce the U.S. tariff on Korean-made vehicles from 25% to 15%, according to researcher Moon.
The problem is that it is unclear when the automobile tariff reduction will be implemented. Researcher Moon said, "We need to watch for the timing of the tariff reduction and whether it will be applied retroactively."
The exchange rate of the won against the U.S. dollar (won-dollar exchange rate) is also important. At the end of June this year, the won-dollar exchange rate was 1,350 won, but it has currently risen to 1,394 won. Researcher Moon estimated that if the end-of-term exchange rate remains high like this, the sales expense burden could reduce the operating profits of Hyundai Motor and Kia by 150 billion won each.
In addition, researcher Moon viewed that labor wage negotiations might also be a variable to be concluded before Chuseok.
Hyundai Motor's global wholesale sales for August of this year were provisionally recorded at 336,395 units, an increase of 0.4% compared to the same period last year. During the same period, Kia's global wholesale sales also showed a 0.8% increase, totaling 253,950 units.