More than half of the domestic listed corporations have reported earnings below market expectations for the second quarter, leading to a downward revision of projections for the third quarter. Concerns are growing that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy will significantly impact corporate earnings in the latter half of the year. The securities industry is suggesting that the KOSPI may have already hit its peak for the year.
According to financial information provider FnGuide on the 24th, among 262 corporations for which three or more securities firms provided projections, 53%, or 140 companies, fell short of the consensus (market expectations) for operating profit in the second quarter. The total operating profit of these 262 companies was 60.31 trillion won, 2.5733 trillion won less than the expected 62.8841 trillion won.
As lackluster earnings continue, the outlook for the third quarter is also trending downward. Among 237 companies for which three or more securities firms have provided estimates, 60%, or 141 companies, have seen their operating profit forecasts decrease in the past three months. Only 96 companies were upwardly revised.
The most significant downward revision was for SK Telecom. The third-quarter operating profit estimate, which was 497.3 billion won three months ago, is now 57.9 billion won, down 88%. This is attributed to customer compensation and SIM replacement expenses due to a large-scale hack. NCSOFT also saw its estimate drop from 3.4 billion won to 500 million won, a decrease of 86%. NEXTIN (-75%), HANSSEM (-49%), Jusung Engineering (-48%), SK (-45%), and SOLUM (-44%) followed with significant downward adjustments.
The situation is similar for the top companies by market capitalization. Samsung Electronics revised its third-quarter operating profit forecast from 9.5177 trillion won to 8.7531 trillion won, an 8% decrease following an 'earnings miss' in the second quarter. Conversely, SK hynix saw its forecast rise from 9.692 trillion won to 10.2734 trillion won, an increase of 6% bolstered by unexpected strong earnings in the second quarter.
Automobile stocks reflected expectations of intensified tariff risks. The third-quarter operating profit estimates for Hyundai Motor and Kia were lowered by 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively. Battery stocks produced mixed results. LG Energy Solution was revised upwards (4.6%), while POSCO Holdings and LG Chem were adjusted downward by 4.9% and 11.7%, respectively. Conversely, biopharmaceutical stocks are leaning more favorably, with the likelihood of the U.S. Congress passing the 'Biosafety Act' increasing, raising estimates for Samsung Biologics (12.9%) and Celltrion (1.1%).
Park Seung-young, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, noted, "The 15% tariff rate established for U.S. imports is expected to impact third-quarter corporate earnings, and the performance in the third quarter does not seem likely to drive up the stock market," adding, "The 3,254 points recorded on the 30th of last month appears to be the KOSPI's peak for the year, and the stock market is likely to remain stagnant until the end of the year."