As the domestic stock market sharply declined, individual investors were found to be purchasing leverage exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track double the daily increase rate of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indexes. This suggests that many investors anticipated a rebound.
According to a check by Koscom on the 21st, during the three trading days from the 18th to the 20th, individual investors made the highest net purchase of 166.4 billion won worth of Samsung Asset Management's 'KODEX Leverage' ETF. Coming in second was the 'KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Leverage' (141.3 billion won).
During this period, the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indexes fell by 2.96% and 4.62%, respectively. The leading stocks, known as shipbuilding, defense, and nuclear power sectors, continued to weaken due to profit-taking, and investor sentiment deteriorated due to the reduced expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, caution ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting on the 22nd, and concerns about the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.
However, individual investors, judging that the stock index had dropped excessively in a short period, shifted from covered call products like the 'KODEX 200 Target Weekly Covered Call' ETF, which had shown a buying advantage of over 100 billion won until last week this month, to index tracking products. Over the last three trading days, both 'KODEX 200' and 'KODEX KOSDAQ 150' also saw net purchases of 29.1 billion won and 14 billion won, respectively, ranking 4th and 9th in net purchase size.
Conversely, the top three net sales over the last three trading days were recorded as 'KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X' (194.5 billion won), 'KODEX Inverse' (35.1 billion won), and 'KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Futures Inverse' (19.9 billion won), all of which invest in falling KOSPI and KOSDAQ indexes.
On the morning of that day, as the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indexes rebounded, it seems that individual investors' judgments had momentarily proved correct. However, there are analyses suggesting that short-term correction possibilities should still be considered. As the results of domestic and foreign events, such as the submission of the second commercial law amendment to the National Assembly by the end of this month and the Korea-U.S. summit, could shake the market.
In the long term, there are optimistic views that it will draw an upward curve. This is because the earnings momentum of Korean corporations is greater compared to the global stock market. In the past month, the 12-month expected operating profit estimate for KOSPI 200 corporations has been revised up by 1.4%.
Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, noted, "Since the outlook for improved performance in the second half has not changed, the likelihood of the KOSPI leading to a price adjustment beyond the period adjustment is low."
Yang Il-woo, a researcher at Samsung Securities, also stated, "The third quarter profit forecasts for the semiconductor, defense, shipbuilding, and securities sectors have risen to a level similar to the 12-month expected figures, and these sectors, due to their high proportion within the Korean stock market, are factors that create strong relative earnings momentum for the Korean stock market."