On Aug. 15, when the domestic stock market was closed for Liberation Day, the share price of the U.S. residential solar company SunRun (RUN) jumped 32.8% in a single day. Other solar corporations such as First Solar (FSLR), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), and Nextracker (NXT) also recorded double-digit gains in their stock prices.
Hyundai Motor Securities explained on the 18th that the new tax credit guidelines announced by the Donald Trump administration were better than market concerns, which alleviated worries about solar installation demand.
The key is that the safe harbor lasts for four years. The safe harbor is a system that allows tax credits (ITC) if a project incurs an expense of more than 5% of the solar project cost, effectively counting it as having started in that year.
The new guidelines state that large solar projects with a capacity of 15 megawatts (MW) or more will apply the criteria based on significant physical work instead of removing the 5% rule. This means that a structure must be installed for the installation of solar panels to be recognized.
Although the conditions have become more stringent than before, if the facility operates within four years, it can receive the ITC. If construction begins this year, the project can benefit from the ITC until 2029, and if it starts before July 4, 2026, it can complete the construction and enjoy the ITC benefits until 2030.
Kang Dong-jin, a researcher at Hyundai Motor Securities, said, "There were concerns about solar market demand after the ITC sunsets in 2027, but with the safe harbor maintained, the uncertainty about medium- to long-term demand has been significantly alleviated."
He added, "For solar power generation projects, it is assessed that ITCs can essentially be obtained for projects completed by 2030," and noted, "In the case of residential solar, the short construction and completion periods have positively resolved uncertainties."
Domestic solar corporations have also been significantly influenced by U.S. solar policies, which can positively affect their stock prices.
Researcher Kang stated, "In the case of Hanwha Solutions, positive influences are expected due to demand for residential solar installations," and recommended OCI Holdings, which has gained importance in the U.S. upstream, as a 'top pick.'