This month, as KOSPI continues to show sluggish movement, Exchange-Traded Notes (ETNs) are emerging as an alternative investment option. In particular, with the increase in transaction volume related to raw material ETNs, individual investors are betting on the rise in natural gas and crude oil prices.
According to the Korea Exchange on the 17th, the average daily transaction volume of ETNs listed on the domestic stock market from the beginning of this month until the 14th is 138 billion won, which is a 10.4% increase compared to last month (125 billion won). In contrast, during the same period, the average daily transaction volume of KOSPI and KOSDAQ decreased by 14.7% and 13.3%, respectively.
After soaring to the 3280 level during trading last month, KOSPI has undergone adjustments this month, remaining in a box range around the 3220 level, which is interpreted as a reduction in transaction volume. The pressure from high points, as KOSPI increased by 13.9% in June and 5.7% in July this year, has also contributed.
As concerns about valuation grow, interest in real assets such as natural gas and crude oil is increasing. Individual investors are particularly focusing on purchasing products that bet on rising prices of natural gas and crude oil. The potential for a ceasefire in the Ukraine-Russia war and expectations for easing U.S. sanctions on Russia have led to a drop in international oil prices and adjustments in natural gas prices, resulting in a surge of buying efforts aimed at a rebound.
According to the Korea Exchange, the most purchased ETN by individual investors over the past week is 'Samsung Leveraged Natural Gas Futures ETN C,' with total purchases amounting to 11.4 billion won. Following this are 'Samsung Leveraged WTI Crude Oil Futures ETN' (10.9 billion won) and 'Shinhan Leveraged WTI Crude Oil Futures ETN (H)' (3.8 billion won), among the top ranks.
However, the securities industry expects that the decline in international oil and natural gas prices will continue for the time being due to oversupply. There are also concerns that the scale of losses for investors who heavily bought leverage products in anticipation of a rebound could increase.
Hwang Byeong-jin, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, 'Due to the supply dominance in the global oil market supply-and-demand balance this year and next year, international oil prices will show a downward trend, and the $50 mark could be threatened for the remainder of the second half.'
Choi Gyu-heon, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, also noted regarding natural gas, 'Typically, demand tends to be lower in summer than in winter, leading to a decrease in natural gas prices. Following the end of the Ukraine-Russia war, prices could decline further due to oversupply pressure, and there are virtually no issues that would drive natural gas prices up from the current levels.'