There is a forecast that the issuance of special bank bonds (special bonds) will increase in the process of securing the promised $350 billion investment from the trade negotiations with the United States. Special bonds refer to the bonds issued by banks that have the nature of government or quasi-government institutions, such as the Korea Development Bank, Industrial Bank of Korea, and The Export-Import Bank of Korea.
Lee Seung-jae, a researcher at iM Securities, noted this in a report titled "On securing funding for the $350 billion U.S.-Korea investment negotiation."
Earlier, the government explained that the $350 billion investment in the United States would mainly be in the form of a capital call (contribution made as requests arise within the agreed limit rather than lump-sum payment). It also noted that direct investments would be limited and mainly take the form of loans and guarantees from the Export-Import Bank of Korea and Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (K-sure).
However, as U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned, if it is "in a way owned and controlled by the U.S.," the possibility of raising an investment fund for contributions, rather than just guarantees, is high, according to the researcher. This implies that the issuance of special bonds may increase.
When the "Fund for Stabilizing Key Industries" was created in 2020, and the "Supply Chain Stabilization Fund" in 2024, concerns over short-term supply in the bond market arose, exerting pressure to expand spreads (the difference in bond yields). However, bond issuance remained limited compared to the size of the funds, which minimized its impact on the market.
The issue this time is that, not only the U.S. investment fund formation but also corporate loans may continue to appear. There could be increased issuance pressure centered on Export-Import Bank bonds. Assuming that the $350 billion investment is spread over five years, it would be about $70 billion (approximately 96 trillion won) per year. This is 38% of this year's total support amount of 252 trillion won from the Korea Trade Insurance Corporation.
The researcher stated, "The increase in the issuance of special bonds will act as a supply burden on the credit market," but added, "the strong demand for special bonds centered around banks and fund operators may offset some supply pressure." He further noted, "It is necessary to pay attention to the upcoming U.S.-Korea summit where specific details may emerge regarding the $350 billion investment scale, which could be considered a "limit."