The Export-Import Bank of Korea's International Economic Research Institute projected that exports in the third quarter of this year would record approximately $167 billion, a decrease of 3 to 4% compared to the same period last year.
According to the '2025 2nd quarter export performance assessment and 3rd quarter outlook' released by The Export-Import Bank of Korea's International Economic Research Institute on the 4th, the export leading index for the third quarter of this year showed a 3.6-point increase compared to the same period last year, standing at 127.8.
While the export leading index had maintained a low level since the fourth quarter of last year, it temporarily rebounded in the second quarter due to large-scale orders in the rail and defense industries. However, the research institute analyzed that signs of export market contraction are being maintained, as indicators such as the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index, excluding machinery order amounts, and import amounts for exports are showing a downward trend.
The export leading index is a composite index created to predict the degree of export increase or decrease by taking into account various factors affecting exports, such as the economy of major export destinations, import amounts for exports, order status by industry, and exchange rates.
The research institute observed that exports in the third quarter of this year would be in the range of $167 billion to $168 billion. A spokesperson from the bank noted, "With increased uncertainty in the economy due to tariff imposition by the U.S. and a decrease in the inventory pre-order effect seen in the first half of the year, it is expected that the impact of tariffs will become more pronounced in the second half of the year."