Sangsangin Investment & Securities analyzed on the 4th that despite stagnant sales, attention needs to be paid to the new product launch of Humedix. Amid intensifying competition in the domestic and international filler and botulinum toxin markets, the growth potential of the new product needs to be evaluated. The target stock price has been raised from 63,000 won to 71,000 won, and the investment opinion remains 'buy.'
Humedix's second-quarter sales are estimated to be 42.3 billion won, and operating profit is estimated to be 10.4 billion won. This represents decreases of 7.7% and 20.6%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. The marketing expenses for the skin booster, Elavee Lituo, estimated for the second quarter have significantly increased and are expected to adversely affect the performance.
Although domestic demand is somewhat sluggish, export performance is positive. Exports of filler products Elavee and Revobolain recorded 9.5 billion won in the fourth quarter of last year, 9.2 billion won in the first quarter of this year, and 9.7 billion won in the second quarter, maintaining stable figures. In particular, exports to Brazil amounted to 5.9 billion won in the first quarter, which accounted for 35% of last year's total of 17 billion won. With continued high growth in the second quarter, total exports of fillers to Brazil this year are expected to reach 25 billion won. The body filler, which has a high demand in Brazil, is also awaiting approval, and additional market entries in Thailand and Vietnam are underway.
The expansion of the portfolio through new products is also positive. Humedix recently launched Elavee Lituo after signing an exclusive domestic distribution contract with L&C BIO, and clinical trials for the composite filler, Belphien, are ongoing.
Elavee Lituo is estimated to have quarterly sales of 500 million to 1 billion won, with an expected annual sales of 4 billion won this year. However, as it has already significantly impacted the stock price due to expectations from the second quarter, it is necessary to observe the sales trends in the second half.
Although the development schedule for Belphien is delayed, there is a possibility of completing clinical trials this year and applying for product approval next year. As a launch next year is also possible, there is a chance that expectations for Belphien may be reflected in the stock price.
Ha Tae-gi, an analyst at Sangsangin Investment & Securities, noted, "Given that the stock price has risen sharply in the short term, there are burdensome aspects to discussing further increases." However, he added, "If the sales of Elavee Lituo in the second half come out positively and the likelihood of Belphien's release next year increases, long-term stock price growth is expected."