The tariff issue, which shook the global asset market in the first half of the year, seems to be coming to a close. Following an agreement between Japan and the European Union (EU) to apply a tariff rate of 15% through negotiations with the United States, President Donald Trump stated that he could impose tariffs between 15% and 20% on other countries.
Ultimately, everything is unfolding in the direction President Trump wants. The anticipated 'TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)' did not occur. As the tariff negotiation deadline (August 1) approaches, if negotiations collapse, tariffs are expected to be imposed at a level of 25%, whereas if an agreement is reached, the rate would be 15%.
Now, it seems to be the stage to confirm and prepare for the impact of the established tariff on the economy and the securities market. After the tariff, what will the domestic stock market flow look like in August?
As demand within the United States decreases, there is a possibility that the stock price trends of domestic corporations will diverge. Sectors with strong export performance in the first half may enter a period of consolidation, while conversely, sectors that struggled may have a relatively lower probability of additional declines.
According to the import and export trends announced by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, Korea's exports to the United States in the first half of this year showed an upward trend centered on semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals, and ships. In contrast, exports of traditional heavy and chemical industry items like petrochemicals and steel products, as well as automobiles, decreased significantly.
Heo Jae-hwan, a researcher at Eugene Securities, noted, 'The slowdown in U.S. pre-demand, which concentrated in the first half of this year, is inevitable' and added, 'Since April of this year, the U.S. import demand has been slowing down in terms of volume, increasing the potential for rotation in the stock market, which has been stagnating around the 3,200 level.'
Meanwhile, there are voices calling to pay attention to corporations with strong investment momentum in the United States. This is because it is interpreted that President Trump's policy goals weigh more on attracting investment and opening markets than on high tariffs.
Earlier, Japan promised a $550 billion investment in the United States in return for reducing tariff rates in negotiations. As it is expected that Japan's SoftBank will lead proactive investments, particularly in data centers, the SoftBank Group's stock showed strength.
A similar trend is appearing in Korea. Recently, the government proposed a shipbuilding cooperation project worth tens of trillions of won to the U.S. under the name 'MASGA (Make American Shipbuilding Great Again).' Upon hearing this news, stock prices in the shipbuilding sector, which had been in a correction phase, surged. On the 28th, Hanwha Ocean jumped 8.44% compared to the previous trading day, and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries rose 4.5%, reflecting optimism.
Experts are paying attention to the possibility of expanded government policy financing support in the future. It is known that the $550 billion investment promised by Japan to the U.S. will be made through various policy financing methods, including equity investments, loans, and loan guarantees.
Kim Jae-seung, a researcher at Hyundai Motor Securities, stated, '(Like Japan,) South Korean corporations may see increased government policy financing support in the process of investing in the U.S.' and stressed the need to pay attention to key sectors such as semiconductors, automobiles, and shipbuilding.