Regarding the hacking incident involving SK Telecom's subscriber identity module (USIM), the government has taken stronger measures than expected, leading securities firms to consecutively lower their target prices. The key issues are the scale of customer attrition and the size of the penalty surcharge.
Securities firms forecast that if SK Telecom maintains last year's level of dividends per share, the dividend yield of around 6.5% to 7% will support the lower bound of the stock price. Conversely, if it becomes difficult to maintain the dividend level, the stock price could experience further sharp declines.
After the final investigation results were announced by the joint examination team consisting of private and public sectors regarding the SK Telecom hacking incident on the 7th, seven securities firms that expressed their investment opinions on SK Telecom recorded an average target price of 60,857 won. This is a drop of 7.2% (4,714 won) compared to their previous average target price of 65,571 won.
The significant impact was due to lowered operating profit projections. The seven securities firms projected SK Telecom's annual operating profit this year to be an average of 1.4057 trillion won, a decrease of 25.7% (470.3 billion won) from the forecast one month ago of 1.876 trillion won and a 30.5% (617.8 billion won) drop from the beginning of the year estimate of 2.0235 trillion won.
SK Telecom's annual operating profit for 2026 was initially estimated at 2.1237 trillion won at the beginning of the year and 1.9737 trillion won a month ago but was recently revised down to 1.9016 trillion won.
This is because SK Telecom's expense burden has increased. SK Telecom announced a customer compensation plan worth 500 billion won. Additionally, it proposed a plan for information security investments worth 700 billion won annually over the next five years. Other costs, such as expenses for USIM replacement and compensation plans for dealers due to a ban on acquiring new subscribers, will also be reflected in its results.
The market expects that the dividend yield will support the lower end of the stock price. SK Telecom shares were trading at 54,000 won in the KOSPI market at 11:25 a.m. on the day. After dropping to 52,800 won in early trading, the stock is now fluctuating around the 54,000 won range. Based on last year's dividends (3,540 won per share), the dividend yield is at a level of 6.5%.
After the hacking incident broke out, SK Telecom's stock price also fell to 50,400 won in May before rebounding. This indicates that many investors consider the 7% yield (around 50,600 won) as a bottom line.
However, there are still variables at play. First is how many more customers SK Telecom will lose. The examination team's final investigation results suggest that the hacking incident occurred due to SK Telecom's negligence, prompting the government to determine that it should waive the penalty fees for customers terminating their contracts. SK Telecom has decided to waive the penalty fees for terminating customers until the 14th. This will also apply retroactively to customers who paid the penalty fees and canceled their contracts after April 19.
The number of customers who left SK Telecom from April to June is estimated to be around 631,000. There is a possibility that the number of departing customers could increase in the coming week. Choi Min-ha, a researcher at Samsung Securities, noted, "We need to closely monitor how many subscribers leave by the 14th, as it could change the potential revenue decrease for SK Telecom."
The size of the penalty surcharge could also significantly affect SK Telecom's performance. The Personal Information Protection Commission plans to impose a penalty surcharge based on the final investigation results of the examination team. With the revision of the Personal Information Protection Act, the basis for imposing penalty surcharges has changed from "up to 3% of related sales" to "up to 3% of total sales." While sales not related to the violation can be excluded from the penalty surcharge calculation, it is up to the corporations to prove this.
In simple terms, if we simply apply 3% to SK Telecom's last year's revenue of 17.9406 trillion won, the maximum penalty surcharge could amount to 538.2 billion won. However, this amount could vary depending on how much SK Telecom can exclude unrelated sales and how much responsibility the Personal Information Protection Commission will impose.
Eugene Securities estimated that if the penalty surcharge exceeds 360 billion won, it will be difficult for SK Telecom to maintain last year's level of dividends. Conversely, if the penalty surcharge is below 180 billion won, they believe there is room to pay the existing dividend amount.
Given that SK Telecom's stock price is sensitive to dividend yield, if future expenses influence the dividend amount, the baseline could also change. Lee Chan-young, a researcher at Eugene Securities, stated, "It has become difficult to predict the size of the penalty surcharge with the government's stance being more stringent than expected, and the feasibility of maintaining dividends has also become unclear. He noted that it would be prudent to hold off on investments until the variables are resolved.