Amidst a surge in stock prices related to stablecoin, there are forecasts that the profitability of stablecoin issuers may deteriorate due to the interest rate cut.
iM Securities Research Center noted on the 25th through 'Interest rate cut cycle, stablecoin issuer profitability check' that stablecoins are virtual assets designed to maintain price stability by linking their value to that of fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar. It is like '1 dollar = 1 coin.'
In the U.S., the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) presented a dot plot showing a total of four interest rate cuts by 2027.
If interest rate cuts continue, the upper limit of the current rate of 4.25%~4.5% will decrease to 4% by the end of this year, 3.75% by the end of 2026, and 3.5% by the end of 2027. As interest rates decrease, liquidity becomes abundant, positively impacting the virtual asset market including Bitcoin.
The issue is that stablecoin issuers have a different revenue structure. According to the 'GENIUDS Act,' a stablecoin-related bill pending approval in the U.S. House of Representatives, stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in safe assets such as cash, short-term government bonds, or reverse repos. As interest rates decrease, the yield on short-term government bonds also drops, which could deteriorate the profitability of stablecoin issuers, according to the analysis from iM Securities Research Center.
iM Securities Research Center stated, "As the growth of the stablecoin market increases the scale of reserves, it may offset the losses from the interest rate cuts, but this applies to issuers like Tether and Circle, which have seized the stablecoin market and achieved economies of scale," adding that "the deterioration of profitability for small issuers is expected to be inevitable."
In Korea, where discussions on won-based stablecoins have intensified, the same conditions apply. The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Korea has maintained its interest rate cut stance, reducing it to the current level of 2.5%. This level makes it difficult to establish a revenue model based on interest differentials.
iM Securities Research Center pointed out, "Considering that Korea is currently maintaining a low interest rate environment and an interest rate cut stance, it is inefficient and less sustainable to directly apply the revenue structure of U.S. stablecoin issuers."
It noted, "The issuance of won-based stablecoins should be seen as an infrastructure to expand the company's blockchain-based services rather than generating revenue on its own," adding that "it will be necessary to attract users through market seizing and network effects and guide them to other high-revenue businesses."