The Toss Securities Research Center noted on the 18th in its '2025 second half outlook' report that it has a positive outlook for the U.S. stock market in the second half of this year.
The Toss Securities Research Center evaluated that while increased volatility occurred in the first half of the year due to tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump U.S. administration, causing the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500 index and Nasdaq to drop by 20% from their peaks, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy remained solid.
It also forecast that although the Trump administration's tariffs and immigration policies may be burdensome in the second half, uncertainty will likely decrease as trade negotiations progress toward the end of the year. The Toss Securities Research Center explained that measures to stimulate the economy, including tax cuts, along with favorable corporate performance could support the recovery of the stock market.
The Toss Securities Research Center said, "Tariff uncertainty is gradually easing, and the U.S. government is alleviating tensions through negotiations with major countries," adding, "In the third quarter, stock price volatility could temporarily increase, but along with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, investor sentiment is expected to stabilize toward the end of the year."
The Toss Securities Research Center presented seven promising sectors: ▲consumer goods ▲robots ▲energy ▲business-to-business (B2B) software ▲cybersecurity ▲semiconductors ▲aerospace and defense.
Considering the policy direction of the Trump administration, it was analyzed that income increases due to tax cuts will lead to consumption, and the revival of manufacturing, along with immigration restriction policies, will increase demand for robots. It was also anticipated that changes in energy policy under the Trump administration would positively impact corporations providing energy infrastructure services.
The Toss Securities Research Center explained that B2B software, cybersecurity, semiconductors, and aerospace and defense are worth paying attention to given the expected profit growth while not being overvalued.