There are forecasts that the domestic stock market will gain momentum after the presidential election. This is because in 2 out of the 3 recent presidential elections, stock prices rose a month after the election.
Huh Jae-hwan, a researcher at Eugene Securities, noted, "(Looking at past cases) the market sentiment after the presidential election was not bad," adding, "In the last 9 cases, stock prices rose by 3-4% a month after the election and increased by 14-16% a year later."
He also analyzed, "In 3 out of the 9 cases, the KOSPI dropped a month, 3 months, or 12 months after the election," stating, "The volatility decreases after the election, and numerically the stock prices are positive after the election."
The expectation of stock market-friendly policies, rather than real estate, is also considered a positive factor. Researcher Huh stated, "This government is likely to take lessons from the negative effects of real estate regulations that were repeatedly imposed by past progressive governments."
He added, "The (next) government plans to focus on revitalizing people's livelihoods, such as a second supplementary budget immediately after the presidential election," noting that attention should be paid to the securities sector, which is expected to benefit from the policy, and the renewable energy industry, which shows the greatest difference from the previous government.
Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, also stated, "Both the ruling and opposition candidates share capital market activation as a core policy, with the resolution of the 'Korea discount' as a common denominator," predicting, "As a result, regardless of which side wins, the KOSPI will share a medium- to long-term roadmap in which the valuation ceiling is adjusted upwards after resolving 'structural undervaluation.'"
However, he added that it is necessary to be wary of the possible anticipation of policies being already reflected in the short term.
The researcher remarked, "In the early presidential election phase in 2017, domestic stocks, excluding IT and secondary batteries, which showed strength due to policy expectations, experienced price adjustments for a considerable period," asserting, "A selective approach to sectors where global cycles and policy expectations coincide is necessary."