DAOL Investment & Securities projected that Celltrion's first-quarter performance will grow but fall short of market expectations. However, it expects sales to normalize after the second quarter, leading to strong performance for the year. The fair stock price is 230,000 won, and it maintained a "buy" investment opinion.
E-Ji-soo, a researcher at DAOL Investment & Securities, noted, "Due to the effects of the seasonal off-peak period and the increase in external contract manufacturing organization (CMO) ratios, the cost ratio is expected to rise, resulting in first-quarter performance falling short of expectations."
Celltrion's consolidated revenue for the first quarter is projected to be 859.8 billion won, an increase of 16.7% compared to the same period last year. Operating profit is also expected to surge by 938.1% year-on-year to 160.3 billion won. Although operating profit is expected to increase significantly compared to last year, it will not reach market expectations. Financial information provider FnGuide estimates Celltrion's first-quarter operating profit expectation to be 228.5 billion won.
The first quarter shows seasonal off-peak effects as clients stock up on inventory at year-end. Additionally, the increase in the CMO ratio for Remsima has also raised expenses.
However, the seasonal impact is expected to resolve from the second quarter. The volume of external CMO is concentrated in the first quarter, and as the year progresses, the improvement in profits is anticipated. Celltrion is stockpiling quantities locally in response to U.S. tariff policies. Establishing local production facilities is also under consideration.
The researcher explained, "This year, the drug price reduction policy of the Donald Trump administration is expected to increase prescriptions for biosimilars (copy drugs for biopharmaceuticals)."