Since the beginning of this month, individual investors have actively purchased exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking domestic indices. However, a closer look reveals a clear divergence in supply and demand by market. Individual investors are betting on a decline in the KOSPI index while betting on a rise in the KOSDAQ index.
According to a check by KOSCOM on the 26th, the ETF with the highest net purchase by individual investors this month (April 1-26) was 'KODEX 200 Futures Inverse 2X,' which tracks twice the decline of the KOSPI 200 index. A total of 288.2 billion won was purchased. Among the top 20 net purchases, 'KODEX Inverse' (46.5 billion won, 12th place) is also included.
Conversely, individuals have net purchased over 300 billion won in 'KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Leverage' (271.6 billion won, 2nd place) and 'KODEX KOSDAQ 150' (31.5 billion won, 20th place), which track twice the rise of the KOSDAQ 150 index.
There is also a clear difference in the selling supply and demand. Among the top 20 net sales by individuals, products betting on a rise in the KOSPI include six items such as 'KODEX Leverage' and 'KODEX 200,' totaling 500 billion won. In contrast, in the KOSDAQ, 44.4 billion won worth of 'KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Futures Inverse,' which can profit from index declines, was sold.
This is because investors believe that in the short term, the rise in the KOSDAQ index will be significantly different compared to the KOSPI. The KOSDAQ market has an individual trading volume ratio approaching 80%, and this year (from Jan. 2 to Mar. 26), individuals net purchased 3 trillion won in this market. This is a significant difference compared to the net sales of 700 billion won in the previous three months.
In the securities industry, it is analyzed that as the liquidity in the KOSDAQ market increases, the possibility of a rise has also heightened. After the cancellation of the financial investment income tax in December last year, individual participation in the KOSDAQ market began to increase significantly. In fact, the balance of credit trading loans for the KOSDAQ (credit balance) has increased nearly 20% from around 6.5 trillion won at the end of last year to 7.8 trillion won this month. The KOSPI only saw about a 13% increase.
Furthermore, the fact that short selling will be fully resumed on the 31st could increase foreign investors' transactions, contributing to the revitalization of the KOSDAQ. From the perspective of foreign investors, they can implement long-short strategies through spot transactions of individual stocks.
Generally, foreigners investing in the Korean stock market prefer 'market neutral strategies' that minimize exposure to stock indices. However, this strategy often yields lower expected revenue, leading foreigners to maximize leverage through spot sales. In the case of the KOSPI, some hedging (risk avoidance) was possible with derivatives such as KOSPI 200 futures, so the activation effect of stock transactions due to short selling is expected to be greater in the KOSDAQ.
Additionally, if uncertainty in domestic politics is alleviated in the future, expectations for additional stock market revitalization measures, such as the expansion of the value-up program, can be considered. This month, while the KOSPI index rose by 4.39%, the KOSDAQ fell by 3.69%, which is interpreted as individuals taking advantage of low prices.
However, there are also observations that the resumption of short selling or policy support is unlikely to lead to long-term stock price increases. Na Jeong-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, noted, "The stock market revitalization policies so far have not led to the long-term stock market increases that were originally intended. However, in the short term, they are market-friendly in increasing stock market participation and gradually addressing the Korea Discount."
The KOSDAQ market tends to see a general rise as certain industries or themes attract attention at the beginning of the year. Experts have suggested themes such as artificial intelligence (AI), space, robots, and entertainment as those that will lead the rise in the KOSDAQ this year.