Hana Securities analyzed on the 22nd that Hana Financial Group's net profit for the fourth quarter of last year would exceed market expectations, suggesting that shareholder return policies could be further expanded. It consequently listed it as the most preferred stock in the sector. The target price is 82,000 won, and the investment opinion remains "buy." The closing price of Hana Financial Group on the previous trading day was 58,000 won.
Hana Securities presented an estimated net profit for Hana Financial's fourth quarter of last year of approximately 576 billion won, indicating a 30% increase compared to the previous year.
Concerns are growing that foreign exchange translation losses due to the rise in the won to dollar (won-dollar) exchange rate will be approximately 140 billion won before tax, along with additional provisions for commercial real estate (CRE) and project financing (PF) estimated to be about 150 billion to 200 billion won, leading to results falling short of consensus (average forecasts by securities firms). However, it is estimated that gains related to securities will largely offset this.
Choi Jeong-wook, a research institute at Hana Securities, said, "The net interest margin (NIM) increased by 3 basis points (1 basis point = 0.01 percentage points) compared to the previous quarter, making it the most favorable NIM among banks in the fourth quarter," adding, "While some one-off factors contributed to the favorable NIM in the fourth quarter, the decline in deposit rates due to regular deposit rollover has significantly contributed."
Hana Financial is recognized as a representative exchange rate-sensitive stock in the sector, and concerns over further expansion of shareholder returns due to the rise in the won-to-dollar exchange rate in the fourth quarter of last year led to a weak stock performance. Research Institute Choi noted, "With the performance being favorable and the common equity tier 1 capital ratio (CET1) expected to be maintained at the required 13% level for expanding shareholder returns, the exchange rate, which has shown soaring levels, could stabilize gradually following Trump's inauguration."
He estimated that the scale of the company's stock repurchase and retirement could be between 350 billion and 400 billion won, higher than the same period last year (300 billion won). Hana Securities suggested that Hana Financial's total shareholder return rate for this year would be 43.3%, and 47.1% for 2026.
Research Institute Choi said, "Concerns over the exchange rate are affecting foreigners more significantly than domestic institutions," adding, "If the exchange rate stabilizes, foreign buying pressure could quickly re-enter the market."