Hana Securities projected on the 15th that the KOSPI index could recover to the beginning-of-year level of 2,600 as President Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment motion passed the National Assembly.
According to Lee Jae-man of the Research Institute at Hana Securities, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) dollar-denominated Korean index typically declined between 13% and 27% from historical highs during events like the global financial crisis, advanced countries' fiscal crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Following the 12/3 martial law situation, it has fallen 26% from its annual peak.
This researcher noted that considering this decline, "The domestic stock market still has room for further rebound after the impeachment vote," adding, "With expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut on the 18th remaining valid, the KOSPI index is expected to recover to the beginning-of-year level of 2,600."
He also mentioned, "It will rebound mainly in sectors expected to see increased net profits in 2025 among those that have experienced excessive declines," specifying sectors like semiconductors, banks, software, information technology hardware, and defense.
The South Korean won to U.S. dollar exchange rate, which surged due to political uncertainty, may partially reverse some of its gains, but this researcher evaluated that there is a strong possibility of continued dollar strength due to American exceptionalism and trade disputes during Donald Trump's second administration. He stated, "The won to dollar exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,400 to 1,430 won until the end of the year," and added, "There is a high likelihood that it will remain in the 1,400 won range until the first half of 2025."